South Africa May Experience More Covid 19 New Cases In The Second Wave, Compared To The First Surge


By Phumzile Mavimbela

A new Covid wave is said to be driving a massive resurgence of the disease in South Africa, with experts warning the country is probably facing a much larger second wave. Countries such as Germany, Switzerland, Israel, Sudan, Mauritius, Turkey and El Salvador have banned incoming flights from South Africa.  

A new variant of the virus known as 501.V2  is driving a powerful second wave, making up about 80 to 90 per cent of new cases in Africa’s most industrialised nation. 

The strain is different from Britain's but is similar in the sense it is spreading far more rapidly than the original virus. 

Professor Salim Abdool Karim, chairman of the government's Ministerial Advisory Committee on Covid-19, said. “Its still very early, but at this stage the preliminary data suggest that the virus that is now dominating in the second wave is spreading faster than the first wave,” 

South Africa may see “many more cases” in the new wave than it experienced in the first surge of the disease, warned Professor Karim, adding that when nasal swabs were taken from patients with the new variant, far more viral load was being found in the samples.

“I will just speculate the following: the…higher viral load in these swabs may translate into a higher efficiency of transmission,” he added 

The new South African variant has been traced to Nelson Mandela Bay in the Eastern Cape, which was the first major urban area to be hit by the country’s second wave. South Africa has recorded about 950,000 cases of the virus since the pandemic began and some 25,000 deaths. Now the country records about 10,000 new cases a day.

Minister of Health Dr Zweli Mkhize said that clinicians had been providing “anecdotal evidence” that a “larger proportion of younger patients with no co-morbidities presenting with critical illness”. 

However, other experts say it is too early to tell if the new strain was more deadly. Professor Karim said it was not yet clear if the new variant is causing more.

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