Nigeria at 61: A giant with challenging crises amid opportunities
By Terhemba Wuam
It is also an age of anxiety, with many measures of Nigeria’s socioeconomic progress painting a picture of a nation in great distress. Nigeria’s
economy has been stagnant, growing at less than 1% cumulatively during the past six years, far below population growth of 2.6%. It also has
about 40% of the population of about 200 million living below the poverty line.
Despite these problems, Nigeria has made substantial socio-economic progress, at least since 1999 when it returned to democracy after decades of military rule. It is also a country with huge resources that have yet to be fully tapped. The biggest of these is Nigeria’s educated citizens. The country had a literate population of less than 5% at independence. Now, more than
60% of the population is literate. Also,
enrolment into tertiary education keeps increasing.
The past 60 years
A review of the past six decades shows that the Fourth Republic, which took off in 1999, has been Nigeria’s golden era in terms of economic and social indicators. This reality is, however, a difficult one to present to the
millions of unemployed who are out of work and
struggling to cope with inflationary pressures on food and other basic livelihood requirements.
Since 1999, Nigeria’s economy has grown more than sevenfold. A big chunk of this is explained by
the rebasing of the economy in 2014. It was found that the economy was 60% bigger than previous estimates.
Nigeria moved from
lower income to lower-middle incomestatus, based on national income per head of population, during the Fourth Republic. That’s based on
World Bank rankings. Other countries in this category include Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Tunisia, India, Iran and Ukraine.
Economic difficulties
Nigeria’s economic difficulties started in the mid-2010s. Nigeria’s economic fortunes are closely aligned with oil prices which showed a
sharp decline between 2014 and 2016.
The World Bank
has described the 70% drop during that period as one of the three biggest declines since World War II, and the longest lasting since the supply-driven collapse of 1986.
A national call to action
Nigeria requires a national leadership with the understanding and capability to set the tone and direction for national growth and development. This must incorporate all citizens, irrespective of ethnic or geopolitical affiliation in a grand vision of collective dynamic growth.
A lack of such political leadership denies the country of the possibility of meaningful growth and critical citizenry.
Nigeria remains a country of great potential. Her fountain of possibilities can be found in its growing population of educated citizens. The population of the educated at this very moment in the country’s history is at the threshold or
point of national acceleration. An example is the country’s burgeoning
tech ecosystem largely driven by young people. It is at a point conterminous with those of the
Asian Tigers before their rapid transformation to developed world and high income status.
All the fundamentals are indicative of a country at the point of a great leap forward, the role of an enlightened and well-educated population is crucial to that process.
Despite limitations in the education sector, Nigeria has more than over
190 universities, the largest university and tertiary education sector in Africa. The country churns out millions of graduate annually, creating the most educated workforce on the continent.
This growth represents both a challenge and an opportunity. It will be a challenge and a huge economic burden if productive opportunities are not found for their engagement. Gainfully employed, these educated millions can be harnessed to drive Nigeria’s economic growth, thus promoting social stability.
Political leadership
Nigeria challenge is not that its political leadership has been corrupt, but that its has had limited ability to govern the country effectively. Nigeria needs a modern political administration where the state is not about maintenance of the status quo and the mere allocation of existing economic values for project and self-aggrandisement.
The state should be reoriented, and directed purposely towards a more expansive interpretation with focus on rapid economic growth and the provision of public goods that empower citizens to become meaningful actors in the overall positive transformation of their society.
Such purposeful action by the national leadership, who must be clearly reformist, is required to alter the trajectory of poor economic growth. It is also required to foster sustained productivity gains in the country’s economy to generate growth to average 6%-10% annually. Such growth is what will enable Nigeria to triple and possibly quadruple its economy within the next 10-15 years in a repeat of the first 20 years of the Fourth Republic.
Inevitably, a growing economy represents the best pathway toward addressing many of the social and economic challenges Nigeria now faces in its seventh decade of independence.
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