The past two weeks have produced consequential set of events in South African post-1994 history with the incarceration of President Jacob Zuma for contempt of Court. South Africa witnessed a showdown between political power and  Constitutional supremacy, as Zuma and his supporters sought to defy the apex court of the land and thus potentially push South Africa into a civil conflict last seen at the height of the resistance movement in the 80s. Whether you agree with the merits of Zuma’s arrest or not, it is hard not to applaud the Constitutional court for affirming the rule of law and for being the final vanguard of South Africa’s hard-fought democracy. 

We have seen how politicians in the face of political expediency have shunned their responsibilities in defence of the Republic.

 One just had to look at the faces that run Luthuli House to see that the ANC did not know how to respond to the Zuma question. On the one hand, ANC under Ramaphosa committed to the ANC’s renewal, any criticism of the Constitutional Court would be seen as the relegation of that commitment but on the other side, not supporting Zuma would be seen as a fanning of the flames of factional infighting. However, it is important to ask what are the consequences of the past week’s events on a political and socio-economic level? 

If one casts their eyes to December 20222, the national elective conference of ANC, the radical economic transformation faction has lost its most powerful voice in the ilk of Zuma. This has aided Ramaphosa’s bid for re-election as ANC president and with that political certainty about the leadership of South Africa until 2029 (pending who becomes ANC president in 2027). No South Africa president elected twice completed their 10 years in office. Both Mbeki and Zuma had their time run out after failing to secure the presidency of their party in 2007 and 2017. 

Ramaphosa would be aware of this history and given how tight his victory was at NASREC against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, he will appreciate the political boost to his bid for Luthuli House in the 2022 elective conference. 

However, if history is anything to judge by, one cannot discount Zuma’s tag as the “comeback kid” of South African politics. He has been here before, having overcome a Rape trial, his removal of a Deputy President of the Republic, and corruption charges that would have denied him his ascension to power in 2009. 

Moreover, even scandals like Nkandlagate have failed to cause the downfall of Zuma. Zuma has and will continue to turn to the same playbook he used in previous legal battles that he is a victim of a political attack and that the courts are being used as pawns against him. He has cast himself as the people’s person, but Zuma is that and more, he is part of their very political elite the claims to be attacking him. The question one must ask is does he still have enough political support beyond KwaZulu-Natal for his message as a victim to land and drive a broader ANC support base to favour a Zuma endorsed candidate come 2022? This is not clear yet and one would have to wait and see. 

What is clear is that all these events point out to increased political agitations within the ANC and a focus of internal political battles moves the ruling party away from where its focus should be and that transforming South Africa. South Africans have been battered and bruised by the covid-19 pandemic and South Africa’s 10-year economic slump that has resulted in high levels of poverty, unemployment, and inequality. Moreover, the lack of ethical leadership in all spheres of government has undermined the moral fabric of the once “miracle” nation. South Africans will continue to pay the ultimate price for a ruling party that more focused on securing the levers of power, rather than governing the country in a manner that ensures that the collective aspirations of the people are met. 

Now a part of these aspirations has to do with being able to put food on the table and the management of the economy is central to this goal. Under Zuma, South Africa’s economic growth has been low and continues to be low with the economy barely growing by 10% in the past decade as annual economic growth struggles to reach one percent in the past decade. Moreover, as economic growth failed, the cost of living increased, leading to a cut in real income levels. However, the burden of this economic slump has been carried by the poor and middle class mostly and it is a burden that will remain unless the government takes the reform of the economy seriously. The positive end to this week is that it affirms that the rule of law in South Africa works, as not even a former head of state can pull a middle finger to the courts. This is seen both by the fact Zuma regardless of his criticism of the courts, went back to the judiciary for a stay of sentence application and in the end found his way to Estcourt prison. 

The message to the world is that South Africa remains an investment destination, where the law can protect all entities that do business in South Africa, especially business with the government. It for Ramaphosa to sell this story about the advantage of doing business in South Africa or using South Africa as an entry point into Africa given the supremacy of our constitution and the ability of the courts to assert this principle regardless of anyone’s status. While Ramaphosa may not be pleased about the political fallout of Zuma’s arrest, he sure could use a marketing angle for Brand South Africa as it struggles to claw in new foreign direct investment in the country. 

Perhaps a final observation about this matter is the ramifications it has on South Africa’s soft power in global affairs, especially in Africa.

While Africa has made strides regarding economic development, many countries continue to face challenges where political elites are treated as above the law and where an independent judiciary remains a pipe dream. South Africa’s democratic transition, its human rights-based constitutional order, and now the affirmation of the rule of law through the incarnation of a former head of state, have added greater steel to its soft power. South Africa has affirmed that beyond the preamble that spells out that the constitution of the land is supreme, South Africa’s judiciary affirmed these words in actions. No other matter has tested the foundations of democracy such as this matter and regardless of what side of the debate you sit on, you must be able to sleep well knowing that the climax of political tensions, the law shall govern!
Musa Mdunge is a political analyst and PhD candidate based at the University of Dundee.