Ethiopia’s elections are needed. But they face credibility challenges
By Jon Abbink
Ethiopia
is holding parliamentary elections at a time of immense domestic turmoil and foreign pressure. This is
due to, in particular, the Tigray conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic and
other ethnic-based violence.
Ethiopia has always been a complex and volatile country, but the confluence of these pressures in 2021 is unique, and dangerous. It also raises the question as to whether these elections can be productive or, to use the standard phrase, “free and fair”.
The elections, originally scheduled for May 2020, were delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which,
according to the government, made it necessary to declare a state of emergency.
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Still, while there are certainly major challenges, the elections are better held than delayed again. The idea is: better something than nothing. Another delay would again perpetuate the
acrimonious national debate on the “legitimacy” of the current government and on the when, where and how of the elections.
However, the peacefulness and credibility of these elections will be challenged by at least five points.
Security issues
Ethnic-based violence threatens the security situation for voters in certain areas, notably Wollega and Horo Gudru (in Oromia region), Metekkel (in Benishangul-Gumuz region), Afar and parts of the south.
These were already volatile well before 2018 and became even more so after 2019. There are
reports that this was
partially driven by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which lost national power in 2018. The Front’s top leaders largely retreated to the Tigray region and have since sought to destabilise the new federal government.
Due to security or administrative issues, the current elections are postponed for 54 constituencies out of a total of 547.
This makes it a truncated election at best, and not covering regions with significant opposition numbers means they’re less credible than they could have been.
Electoral weaknesses
The current government, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, emanated in 2018 from an authoritarian government under the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. Abiy has since significantly
opened up the political system,
media and civil society.
To have credible and competitive elections would be a watershed of political change, and the National Electoral Board
has tried to
make them so.
However, in the new and unsettled political space, there are issues related to the current electoral rules, the performance and strength of the opposition parties, and to campaigning.
There is a significant incumbent advantage for the Prosperity Party – the political party that Prime Minister Ahmed formed in 2019 as a successor to the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front. This is because Abiy’s leadership has brought new liberties, has an
appealing political
rhetoric and took many economic and developmental initiatives. The Prosperity Party is also omnipresent in the administrative structure of the country, although
not unchallenged.
In addition, opposition parties are relatively weak. They lack experience and are not electorally tested yet.
For instance, one reason why elections were delayed, from 5 June to 21 June, was the
organisational weaknesses of opposition parties. Many didn’t have their list of candidates in order and hadn’t followed the right procedures.
Two important Oromo parties will, unfortunately, not participate. The Oromo Federalist Congress issued a boycott
due to perceived repression and some of its leaders being imprisoned. And the Oromo Liberation Front was
not on time with registration.
Originally over 120 parties applied for registration with the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia. But only 46 of these remained, marshalling enough support and fielding candidates.
Over 37 million people
registered to vote out of an estimated total of 50 million eligible voters. But the registration process was not flawless. For instance, people in some remote areas and in internally displaced camps (
almost 2 million) could not register.
Tigray conflict
Since November 2020, there’s been a
violent conflict between Ethiopia’s central government and the Tigrayan regional government. This has hindered the preparation for the elections. In fact, following the delay of the 2020 election, the Tigray region authorities
announced that they no longer recognised the federal government. They then organised their own regional elections in September, which weren’t officially recognised.
The violent armed conflict
has caused humanitarian challenges and a dire situation for many civilians living in the region. As a consequence, the electoral commission
ruled that elections couldn’t be held in Tigray due to the instability.
Opposition contestation
On one hand, opposition parties
claim that conditions were never fair and that their leaders are unjustly in prison.
On the other hand, the government
stated that these people were in prison for a reason. The reasons
include assault and public violence, and
violating coronavirus pandemic rules for mass meetings.
Logistics
The Electoral Board faced the immense task of organising the elections in a large country. There are
about 114 million people living in the country which is 1 million km² in size.
Logistics need to be organised which
include transport, voter information and education, staffing
and ballot box distribution.
The electoral board
was reformed and is now much more independent. It
takes on a larger share of the responsibility for the organisation and the outcome. It is doubtful whether all its (additional) tasks can be financed from a
limited and stressed budget in these times of conflict and austerity.
Finally, when it comes to treating complaints and having a transparent vote-counting process, the electoral board
announced improvements.
As to election observation, some 45 domestic NGO or civil society groups were certified. From abroad there are two American organisations and the African Union observing.
Necessary vote
All things said, it is advisable to meet the
apparent wish of the Ethiopian public and get these elections done. It’s crucial for Ethiopia to entrench a new culture of democracy which is based on issue politics and compromise thinking.
Because of the various challenges mentioned, these elections cannot be seen as the consolidation of a mature democracy. Nevertheless, they are much more competitive than previous elections and inculcate the idea of multiparty politics. They stand a chance of yielding a good number of opposition politicians in the regional state councils and in the federal parliament, and perhaps produce one or two coalition parties in government with the Prosperity Party.
If that happens they will have made history.
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