#SAElections2019: Will The DA's Blue Wall Stand or Will We Witness An ANC Wave?


By Musa Mdunge

Two weeks from now South Africans from all walks of life will participate in the sixth general elections. These elections come after 10 tumultuous years of factionalism, corruption, low economic growth and growing inequality under President Jacob Zuma’s administration. While the ANC has managed to keep control over eight out of the nine provinces, the Western Cape continues to be an island in South Africa, under the control of the Democratic Alliance since the 2009 general elections. 

Besides KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, Western Cape has always been a highly contested electoral battleground for political parties. On the one hand, the province is home to South Africa’s second largest commercial hub and the country’s leading tourist destination, Cape Town. Moreover, the province is home to the legislative arm of the state and is also South Africa’s second largest province in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, the province of the Western Cape has a unique demographic breakdown. About 42% of its population is classified as coloured, 31% African descent and 15% white South Africans. It is the only province in the country to not house a racial group that is the majority but also it is the only province where African indigenous people do not make up the majority in the province. 

As a result, the Western Cape offers a unique outlook on how to look at politics in the province and complex issues around identity politics and how this politics feeds into how the Western Cape’s electorate view political parties such as the DA and the ANC. All you must do is look at three recent events that highlight the tensions that have shaped this province not only in the past 25 years of democracy but South Africa’s history, dating back to 1652.

Patricia de Lille and Helen Zille in happier times


The first is the Economic Freedom Fighters’ (EFF) proposal to rename the Cape Town International Airport after ANC stalwart, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela. While the proposal was nationally popular, especially after her passing, many in the Western Cape rejected the proposal, arguing for the recognition of Koi-San historical leaders and the role of Coloured political figures rather than Madikizela-Mandela. The public hearings exposed publicly the often subdued inter-black tensions that have defined  Western Cape, where the general feeling has been that the ANC, especially those who came back from exile and Robben Island, undermined the contribution made by Coloured people in the Western Cape in the liberation of South Africa from apartheid. Moreover, there is a popular view that the rejection of their role has filtered into how subsequent ANC governments have “forgotten” coloured people in post-apartheid South Africa. 

The anger whether based on truth or perception (depending on which side of the argument you are on), has shaped how Western Cape’s largest racial constituency has voted in the past 25 years. 

From 1994-2001, the New National Party (NNP, formerly known as the Nationalist Party) managed to hold off the ANC. However, the subsequent absorption of the NNP into the ANC, saw the parties join forces and by 2004 the ANC will the help of the NNP’s 11 legislative seats, gave the ANC the keys to the Western Cape kingdom. However, while this victory has largely been lauded due to the floor crossing of the NNP, the ANC managed to grow from 33% in 1994 to 45% in 2004. This as the NNP merger with the ANC saw more voters cross to the ANC but also the rise of local political heavyweights like Ebrahim Rasool and Lynn Brown, saw the ANC manage to court more coloured voters.



However, the ANC was not the only province experiencing growth. The DA (formerly known as the Democratic Party) grew from 6.6% in 1994 to 27% in 2004 under the leadership of Tony Leon. The DA was branding itself as the home of neo-liberal white people but also sought to court moderate white Afrikaner voters and appeal to the coloured vote in the Western Cape and soon it would be rewarded by taking over Cape Town, the crown jewel of the Western Cape in the 2006 local government elections. The ANC did not see this coming as it was focused on internal factionalism and several corruption scandals that deterred its focus on governance. This would lead the party to lose the Western Cape in 2009 to the DA. In 2009 the DA managed to win 51% of the vote and subsequently 59% in the 2014 polls, this as the ANC saw its support in the province fall. Nonetheless, the ANC maintains a base vote of 32% in the province and will look to regain some lost ground in the 2019 elections. 

This statement may surprise some people given that the ANC in the province lacks any good name recognition leaders in the province and the DA can argue that “it’s the economy stupid” that triumphs. Yes, the DA has a leg to stand on, Cape Town and the Western Cape have the lowest unemployment rate in the country. Moreover, the level of economic development is the highest bar Gauteng and Western Cape’s health and education system are among the best in the country. 

When it comes to clean governance, the DA has a better record than ANC but whether the party has governed well for both the coloured and African populations is still a question. 

All you must do is look at Mitchells Plain, Gugulethu and Du Noon.

Nonetheless, the numbers don’t lie, and this will make the ANC’s task to reclaim the Western Cape difficult. However, in the past two years cracks in the DA’s house have become more visible. Corruption allegations against the former Mayor of Cape Town, Patricia de Lille and controversial statements made by Western Cape Premier Helen Zille, have cast a shadow of doubt on whether the DA is as clean as it would like us to think it is and whether it is also an inclusive party. 

Patricia de Lille’s ascension to power in Cape Town was key for the DA’s coloured vote growth and the ANC in effect had no answer to her but the water crisis that rocked Cape Town in the past two years has highlighted DA’s mismanagement of the Cape’s water supply. On top of that, divisions within the Cape Town caucus over how de Lille was being booted out of the party by the DA’s top leadership structure has highlighted the fact that factionalism is not unique to the ANC but even the DA has had to grapple with this problem. 

Consequently, her decision to leave the DA due to what she viewed as an “anti-coloured” attack by the DA sought to paint the party with the same brush used to paint the ANC and this has been used by some ANC political figures in the province to position the DA as an anti-coloured and black party and that the solution was to replace the DA with the ANC. 

Given the cross-sectionality of de Lille views and the ANC’s opportunism, one could have sworn that she would have joined the ANC but no, she, de Lille, chose to start another party, the GOOD Party. The party whose colours, orange and white, remind us of her earlier stint at the Independent Democrats (ID), mark her attempt to bruise the DA in the Western Cape while scoring a seat in parliament.

The launch of the GOOD party


What I am sure about is that she will make her way to 90 Plein Street but whether she will make a good enough dent to the DA’s support in the province remains to be seen. The GOOD party may gain some votes but any possible impact to the DA will come from the ANC as the rise of President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is popular in the province and the DA’s own self afflicted wounds, could see the ANC make gains in the coloured and black township votes. Nonetheless, rural support is likely to remain at the core a DA playground. All three parties will need to position themselves as the most pro-coloured parties in not only policy positions they take but also in ensuring Coloured representation on a national and provincial scale is evident. 

My view is that the DA will maintain control over the Western Cape but will lose some votes but should still maintain at least 55% of its support in the province, followed by the ANC between 35%-40%, the GOOD party 3%-8% and the Economic Freedom Fighter likely to maintain their 2% support in the province.

-JP

Article Tags

Cancel

    Most Read