The recent IPOS poll indicated that if elections were held last week, the ANC would retain its 60% plus majority in Parliament, followed by DA at 18% and the EFF at 10%. The poll came prior to the rolling out of stage four load shedding across South Africa, due to poor coal supply and Cyclone Idai that hit Mozambique and parts of Zimbabwe and damaged transmission lines to South Africa. Consequently, it is important to question how, if at all, will the recent woes in Eskom impact the electoral fate of South Africa’s major parties, particularly the ANC? This as the failure of national management of our electricity supply has had personal ramifications for ordinary people and businesses.

 

Early in February Eskom and by extension the government promised that load shedding would be a thing of the past by March but have since pushed this deadline to the end of April. However, given the developments of last week and this week’s expected plunge in darkness, this deadline may seem unrealistic as South Africa’s depleting reserves, poor maintenance on power stations and Eskom’s dire financial health, indicates that the dark days will continue to be the status quo leading into winter!

 

Now while the macroeconomic implications have been well documented, what is the impact of load shedding on ordinary South Africans and small business and what are the consequences of this on the upcoming elections?

 

The foundations of human productivity start by how quick the factors of production can come together to lead to economic output. Traffic on South Africa roads in major commercial centres such as Cape Town, Johannesburg and Durban are already a headache to ordinary South Africans on as day to day but are made amplified by the nuisance of robots that do not work due to power cuts in peak traffic hours. The longer it takes for people to get to work, the less productive labour can be, and this is not hard to see. However, there is the emotional and mental impact that hours spent in traffic can have on people’s ability to be productive. The frustration of long hours on the road mixed with taxis breaking every conceivable rule of the road leads to exhaustion that can cripple human productivity for the day. 

 

Moreover, while the sound of generators has become more popular, the opportunity cost of generators remains a cost most small business cannot afford. As a result, some companies are forced to close shop for the day and send their employees home. While some people might not mind an early knock-off time, the bottom line is severely hit by a lack of productivity and business especially electricity driven industries. Should we see a sustained period of load shedding, the difficult questions of cost-cutting measures in order meet break-even points at the expense of retrenching workers, may become a reality for most small businesses in the country. I need not spell out the impact of the on unemployment in a country wrestling with ways of stimulating economic growth, with the objective of creating enough jobs. 

 

South Africa’s crime rate is well documented and continues to be national crises. All you must do is go on social media, switch on your television set or the radio and news after the news is filled with another murder, rape and assault incident. Many South Africa’s due to logistical and transport issues must walk home late in the evening. When load shedding occurs streetlights too fall victim and make scarier the experience of walking in dark roads of South Africa for many. Darkness equals better opportunity for criminals to target people and little or no police supervision in our streets during those periods of evening load shedding leaves many of people vulnerable to threats posed by criminal elements in our country. 

 

In addition to the issues mentioned above, is the cost of load shedding to purse strings of ordinary South Africans. I know personally that there have been times due to load shedding where it was impossible for my family to cook and we needed to depend on takes to meet the needs of our rumbling stomachs. Now, this may have been great for the first two days. However, take-outs don’t come cheap both on one's pocket and health. While there may be a positive side for restaurants that have generators, as they score from our need to run to them to get dinner, imagine how much money could have been saved has the lights been on and we could prepare a home cooked meal that lasts at least two days. Moreover, South Africans have had to buy more lanterns, gas-driven lamps and candles to find an alternative way to keep the lights on.

 

Furthermore, going even back to the traffic issue, the longer we are on the roads, the more petrol we consume and given the recent increases in petrol prices and the expected R1.80 increase by next month, South Africans will have to spend more money on petrol. All in a bid to sustain their cars being on the road longer due to traffic jams all over the country. Consumers are already experiencing a pinch to the pockets and this does not appear likely to change in the coming three months.

What does this mean for the upcoming national and provincial elections?

Given that load shedding presents day-to-day challenges for many South Africans, could we see a tangible electoral effect? Well, I would be tempted to say yes, no doubt the ANC must be nervous in urban areas where the impact of load shedding has been grave. Recent polling shows the ANC’s support in the Gauteng alone sits at 55 percent. This means that even though recent polls show an ANC majority in the province, South Africa’s economic hub remains fair play for opposition parties that will exploit the ongoing electricity crises to highlight the legacy of the ANC-led government’s inability to run the embattled power utility and provide South Africans with light. 

 

Now, there is no doubt that the election of President Cyril Ramaphosa as firstly the ANC president and the removal of former president Jacob Zuma will have some positive ramifications for the ANC at the polls but the prolonged inconvenience of load shedding on South Africans could the ANC punished for failing to resolve the energy crisis in this country.

 

Could we, therefore, see coalition politics in Gauteng and if so, what will be the implications of a possible DA/EFF alliance on the political certainty in Gauteng. Could see the messy politics of coalitions that took a grip in Pretoria, Nelson Mandela Bay and Johannesburg cripple the functionality of the provincial government and open us to new political challenges that we did not experience under the dominance of one party?

 

In the end, the very microeconomic challenges of this crisis may well have significant macro-political consequences for us all. The question we, therefore, must ask ourselves is, do we have the courage and the capacity to meet these challenges or has the Zuma years worn us out?